If you’d taken odds on which teams would find themselves below the red playoff line four months into the season, you might’ve had a few common takers. At the very least, picking out a few teams that hadn’t made the playoffs in 2015 and puzzling out the ones that hadn’t done much in the offseason was a safe bet.
Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders, however, would almost certainly not have made the list.
To say nothing of the form that made the Sounders the hottest team in MLS over the last few months of the 2015 season, Toronto FC made history last year. From their expansion year in 2007 through 2014, TFC failed to make the MLS playoffs in each of its first eight years in existence. Considering how forgiving MLS playoff qualification is, it was an ignominious record of futility.
How quickly a season can change perceptions. Behind the imperial Sebastian Giovinco, who easily won the MLS MVP award with 22 goals and 16 assists, TFC snapped up the sixth and final playoff slot in the Eastern Conference in 2015 and was just two points behind third place. A sullen 3-0 loss to the Montreal Impact in the first round was almost easier to take when you considered the progress.
This season, however, has not gone to plan. And it just got worse for TFC.
The Toronto club has been beset by injuries on all sides, and as a result the team finds itself in seventh place in the Eastern Conference as July looms. Striker Jozy Altidore tweaked his hamstring on May 14 and hasn’t played since. Goalkeeper Clint Irwin, who’d been a rock all season, strained his quad on a goal kick on June 26 and will miss six weeks. To pile on, Michael Bradley suffered a knee strain in the Copa America Centenario and will also miss six weeks, as will recently-injured Will Johnson. That’s two defensive midfielders knocked out at the same time.
Needless to say, the TFC limping onto BMO Field for battle with the Sounders on Saturday’s (4:30 p.m. PT; JOEtv, ROOT Sports (outside Seattle); KIRO Radio 97.3 FM, El Rey 1360AM) might need a full roll of duct tape to stay together.
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In their last full MLS match while Bradley was on Copa America duty - a 3-2 loss to Orlando City - Johnson and Benoit Cheyrou manned the deep waters of the defensive midfield while Tsubasa Endoh and Jonathan Osorio roamed higher. Johnson is out, so TFC coach Mark Vanney might turn to U.S. international Marky Delgado, who’s young but talented.
And of course there’s still Giovinco. He’s on a slightly slower pace than last year, but he still has eight goals and six assists in 15 games this year. While all the other pieces around him fluctuate, Giovinco remains the constant. And he’s still as terrifying as ever, even if his service is more direct than it’s ever been.
In fact, no team in the league plays more long balls than TFC, which styles this match as one of contrasts. Even with a full healthy complement of players, TFC goes over the top with an unerring consistency. Vanney’s men average 81 long balls per game, three more than anyone in the league, and their 76 percent success rate on passes is a lagging 14th. The tactical game plan is basically to find Giovinco at all costs. That’ll be doubly the case this weekend without two of the team’s Designated Players.
The Sounders, meanwhile, are in something of a storm’s eye at the moment. They’ve lost each of their last two MLS matches 2-0, and as defender Brad Evans noted after the most recent 2-0 loss against NYCFC, the Sounders don’t lose like this. They’ve never missed the playoffs in their MLS history, and while there’s still plenty of time to recover, 16 points from 15 matches won’t cut it. Not in the loaded Western Conference, anyway.
Plus, Seattle hasn’t exactly been in roaring form on the road this season. The Sounders are 1-5-1 away from CenturyLink Field this season, and the newly renovated BMO Field is an especially tough environment these days.
But will TFC, with all its injury struggles, make it as inhospitable as the Canadian outfit no doubt hopes? The Sounders certain hope not.
