MLS

PREDICTIONS: FiveThirtyEight maps out Seattle Sounders’ Decision Day chances

The Seattle Sounders can finish anywhere between second and fifth in the Western Conference after their Decision Day clash with the San Jose Earthquakes on Sunday at CenturyLink Field (1:30 p.m. PT; JOEtv, YouTube TV, 950 KJR AM, El Rey 1360 AM | TICKETS). Here’s what FiveThirtyEight’s predictions showed for the Audi 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs:


  • The Sounders have a 45 percent chance of earning a Knockout Round bye.
  • The Sounders have a 69 percent chance of winning on Sunday, a 12 percent chance of losing and a 19 percent chance of a draw.


The Sounders would earn a Knockout Round bye with a win, and if FC Dallas draws or loses at the Colorado Rapids. Here are those predictions:


  • FC Dallas has a 41 percent chance of winning, and a 59 percent chance of dropping points (32 percent loss, 27 percent draw).


You can see FiveThirtyEight’s full predictions here, and full Sounders playoff scenarios here.

2026 Season Membership Deposits

2026 Season Membership Deposits

Feel the pull of the Sound and step into something bigger. 2026 will continue to put Seattle soccer on the world stage, so there's no better time to join the Rave Green and grow with the Sounders legacy. Secure your seat alongside the best fans in MLS.

Two Tickets & Two Beers (vs. Portland Timbers)

Two Tickets & Two Beers (vs. Portland Timbers)

Come out to Lumen Field to watch your Seattle Sounders take on Portland with this special ticket offer sponsored by Michelob Ultra. For just $40 + Taxes & Fees, get two tickets & two beers for the match. For 21+ fans only and drinks must be picked up in the North Plaza 21+ beer garden prior to kickoff.

Kickoff at 7:30 p.m. PT on October 4.

Match & Merch Bundle (vs. Portland Timbers)

Match & Merch Bundle (vs. Portland Timbers)

Add a limited-edition Cascadia Rivalry t-shirt to your ticket to the Portland Timbers match. Matchday pick up info will be communicated prior to the match via email.

Kickoff at 7:30 p.m. PT on October 4.